Shot-making only took teams so far in the 7DAYS EuroCup Regular Season, and its ability to carry teams even further than the Top 16 is checkered.
Stats Review: Shot-making vs. winning
Stats
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High-Gravity Matchup
The final Top 16 spot in Group B was settled in Round 10 as Mornar Bar scored a decisive win over Buducnost VOLI Podgorica on the road to punch its ticket to the next phase, which begins on January 13. Holding onto a modest lead throughout the second half, Mornar was able to overcome a sub-par effort on the glass by blocking 9 shots and getting a timely 20-point effort from Jacob Pullen. Shooting an effective field goal percentage of 59% in their Round 10 win, this was an impressive shot-making performance for Mornar, which posted a 15th-ranked effective field goal percentage of 53% during the regular season.
Shot-Making Efficiency
As much as shot making proved to be the difference for Mornar in the biggest game of their season, it maintains an uneasy relationship with regular-season success. Though every team in the top 11 in effective field goal percentage which accounts for the value of three-pointers relative to two-pointers – advanced to the Top 16 last season, the team that led the regular season by that standard during the 2018-19 campaign failed to advance at all.
Though a team's ability to make shots accounts for the lion's share of their overall offensive efficiency – well ahead of rebounding, free throw rate and turnover percentage – teams that tend to lean heavily on offense alone often find mixed results in the EuroCup. This year's leaders are a microcosm of the disparate outcomes in recent history.
Unicaja Malaga may rank second in effective field goal percentage this season, but they rank first in offensive efficiency by a comfortable margin. That has helped them compensate for their 22nd-ranked defense. Despite being one of the six teams to allow over 1.00 points per possession this season, Unicaja still managed to finish the regular season as one of just four teams with at least eight victories.
Similarly, Frutti Extra Bursaspor shot the ball at a very high level this season and was the only team to challenge Unicaja atop the offensive efficiency leaderboards. Bursaspor also allowed a marginally better effective field goal percentage than Unicaja, defensively, but nonetheless finished last in defensive efficiency and currently as a 0-7 record, falling short of the Top 16.
And then there's Segafredo Virtus Bolgona, who not only made shots at the highest rate of any team in the regular season, but also finished as the top defensive unit – a model of the balance that tends to be more sustainable at this level.
The mix of teams at the top of the shot-making rankings this season cover the range of scenarios that have played out for offensive-minded teams in recent EuroCup history. Looking ahead, it will be fascinating to see how Virtus and Unicaja fare in the Top 16. No team to lead the EuroCup regular season in effective field goal percentage has ever advanced even to the semifinals before. Virtus's balance figures to challenge that precedent, but it has interesting implications for an Unicaja team that has a lot in common with those high-octane offenses of the past. Whether Unicaja is explosive enough to be the team that breaks that mold – or not – will be fascinating to watch.