Stats review: Finding success late in the shot clock

Being able to score when the shot clock is winding down can make a world of difference in the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague

Round 20 of the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague saw FC Barcelona climb back above the playoff cut line with a road victory over an AS Monaco team that was on top of the standings coming into the week. Building, losing, and regaining a 14-point lead that proved to be the final margin, it was likely the most impressive single-game effort of the season for coach Joan Penarroya’s team as they look to bounce back from a 2-7 stretch to close 2024 and return to the Final Four after their streak of consecutive appearances was broken a year ago.

While there were several bright spots for Barca, the team's execution late in the shot clock was key to its ability to get separation from one of this season’s most dangerous offensive teams. The team scored 20 points over only 12 possessions with the clock winding down. Synergy defines short clock opportunities as any possession occurring with 4 seconds or less on the shot or game clock. Those possessions make up around 20% of all EuroLeague plays with teams typically falling with 15% and 25% depending on how consistently they grind the clock with a few outliers on both ends of the spectrum.

There is not as much variance in the frequency with which teams operate late in the clock as there is in the efficiency they score with when they do. On average teams score 0.84 points per short-clock possession — well behind the 0.98 average for half-court possessions that has contributed to this season’s near-record overall offensive efficiency numbers. With six teams scoring less than 0.80 points per late-clock possession, the challenges of making something out of nothing under time pressure is very real, and, at this level, tends to play out as more dribbling, fewer fouls, and an elevated percentage of rushed perimeter shots or contested attempts inside the arc.

As the table above shows, Barca has done a better job than anyone scoring late in the clock this season, edging Monaco by a fraction of a point. While it might seem cliché, Barca does a good job staying cool under pressure. On the floor, that shows most often in the way it routinely makes the extra pass along the perimeter with only a few seconds on the clock — Barca rarely overthinks those swing passes. The players also do not show much panic with the ball, picking matchups in some late-clock situations and rarely looking sped up doing so. The presence of Kevin Punter has helped with that; his efficiency hasn’t budged under pressure as he ranks among the league’s top-10 short-clock scorers, but Barca has gotten contributions from all over en route to the top spot here.

The same can be said for Monaco, which not only ranks near the top of the EuroLeague offensively with time running down, but defensively as well. Though that is somewhat unsurprising given its rise to the top of the standings this season, the route there might be. One would assume Mike James, who has routinely ranked among the most productive late-clock scorers in recent history, is lifting the club in those spots, but he ranks only fourth on the team in short-clock points this year as Matthew Strazel, Elie Okobo, and Alpha Diallo have all thrived to make Monaco so tough to stop under duress.

This season’s individual late clock scoring leader is Theo Maledon who not only has been prolific, but scored a tremendous 1.20 points per possession to help guide LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne to its lofty placement. His ability to get downhill in a pinch to draw fouls stands out even more under time pressure.

Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz has operated late in the clock more than any team in the EuroLeague with 25% of their possessions coming under such circumstances while Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv ranks on the other end of the spectrum at just 16%. Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul has been the most efficient defensive unit with the shot clock under 4 seconds, but Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade has been perhaps the most impactful unit forcing teams to operate deep into the shot clock a top-ranked 27.5% of the time.

While it represents just a small slice of the game, poise under time pressure is one of a number of little things teams rely on to win on the margins in the EuroLeague.